Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction, October 26, 2026: Can the Nervionenses Finally End Arrasate’s Unbeaten Hoodoo? 🏆

Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction: Match Preview

Sevilla welcome Osasuna to the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán on Monday evening for the closing fixture of LaLiga’s tenth round, and the hosts do so with a psychological hurdle that has defined this fixture for half a decade. Jagoba Arrasate, who returned to Osasuna last week, has not lost any of his last ten meetings with Sevilla—five wins and five draws stretching back to October 2021. The Nervionenses sit sixth with 14 points, but their recent form is concerning: one point from their last three matches, including a 4-1 humbling at Real Madrid. Osasuna, by contrast, arrive on the back of a 2-0 victory over Racing Santander in Arrasate’s first match of his second spell, sitting eleventh with 11 points.

Match Information 📋

Match: Sevilla FC vs CA Osasuna
Competition: Spain: LaLiga – Round 10
Date: Monday, 26 October 2026
Kick-off: 21:00 CET (20:00 BST)
Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla
Our Prediction: Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna

Head-to-Head Record 📋

Sevilla hold the historical edge across 57 competitive meetings, with 24 wins to Osasuna’s 17 and 16 draws. At the Sánchez-Pizjuán, the record is more balanced than the overall ledger suggests. However, the recent trend is emphatically in Osasuna’s favour: the visitors won the most recent encounter 2-1 at El Sadar in April 2026, and Arrasate’s personal unbeaten run against Sevilla spans ten matches across his time at Osasuna and Mallorca.

Sevilla Form 🔵

Last 5: L-D-L-W-W

Sevilla’s season has been defined by attacking promise and defensive frailty. The 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid before the international break was their third loss of the campaign, and they have conceded 10 goals in their last three matches. Luis García Plaza’s side average 1.56 goals per game but concede 1.78, a differential that explains their mid-table positioning. Robbie Ure is expected to lead the line in the absence of a fully fit Lucas Stassin, while Rubén Vargas and Peque Fernández provide the creative support.

Team News: Sevilla have received a timely boost with Lucas Stassin and Jon Guridi returning to training after injury layoffs. Giorgi Kochorashvili has also recovered from his soleus issue and is available. Miguel Sierra and Marcao remain sidelined, while Stassin’s fitness is being managed carefully after a recurrence of muscle discomfort.

Osasuna Form ⚪

Last 5: W-D-L-W-L

Osasuna’s season has been a study in inconsistency, but the return of Arrasate has injected fresh belief. The 2-0 victory over Racing Santander was their first win since September, and Ante Budimir remains the focal point with seven league goals. The visitors’ away record is concerning—15 goals conceded in four away matches, with zero clean sheets—but their attacking output has been respectable, scoring six on the road. Aimar Oroz and Romain Del Castillo are both unavailable through injury, robbing Osasuna of creativity in the final third.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Sevilla Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Vlachodimos; Juan Iglesias, Castrín, Kike Salas, Suazo; Agoumé, Fofana; Ejuke, Rubén Vargas, Félix Correia; Ure

García Plaza is expected to retain the core that has served him, with Ejuke and Correia providing width and Ure leading the line.

Osasuna Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Aitor Fernández; Rosier, Catena, Boyomo, Bretones; Moncayola, Iker Muñoz, Moi Gómez; Rubén García, Budimir, Dubasin

Arrasate is expected to retain the XI that beat Racing, with Budimir leading the attack and Moncayola anchoring midfield.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical models give Sevilla a 49% win probability, with the draw at 29% and Osasuna at 22%. Sevilla’s xG of 1.37 per match is marginally superior to Osasuna’s 1.28, but the defensive figures are equally concerning: Sevilla concede 1.48 xGA, Osasuna 1.45. Both Teams to Score carries a 50% probability according to one model, though Sevilla have seen both sides score in seven of their nine league matches.

The key battle will be Sevilla’s attacking transitions against Osasuna’s physical, direct approach. García Plaza has described Osasuna as “an intense and physical team with many duels, direct balls, second balls and hard pressing”. Without Oroz’s creativity, Osasuna rely heavily on Budimir’s movement and set-pieces. Sevilla’s defensive fragility—exposed by Real Madrid—suggests the visitors will get chances.

Betting Analysis 💰

Sevilla are marginal favourites at 2.00, with Osasuna at 3.60 and the draw at 3.40. Both Teams to Score is the standout angle at 1.95, with Sevilla having seen both sides score in seven of nine league matches and Osasuna’s away defensive record being abysmal. Draw offers value at 3.40 given Arrasate’s remarkable unbeaten run against Sevilla.

Final Prediction 🏁

Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna

This is a fixture where history and current form pull in opposite directions, and a draw feels the most probable resolution. Sevilla possess the superior individual quality and home advantage, but their defensive vulnerabilities and Arrasate’s personal dominance over them are significant psychological hurdles. The returns of Stassin and Guridi offer García Plaza options, but neither is likely to start.

Osasuna will not go quietly. Budimir’s goalscoring record is genuine, and Arrasate’s tactical blueprint against Sevilla has proven effective across a decade. The visitors’ away defensive record is poor, but Sevilla’s own attacking output has been inconsistent.

Prediction: Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna. Rubén Vargas opens the scoring for the hosts, but Budimir equalises in the second half as Osasuna extend Arrasate’s unbeaten run against Sevilla and claim a creditable point on the road.