Alaves vs Malaga Prediction, October 23, 2026: Can the Winless Anchovies Finally Sing in Vitoria? 🏆

Alaves vs Malaga Prediction: Match Preview

Alaves welcome Malaga to the Estadio Mendizorrotza on Friday evening for a LaLiga fixture that pits two sides enduring deeply troubling runs against each other. The hosts sit seventh with eleven points but have not won in five matches, a slump that has followed an extraordinary start of ten points from a possible twelve. Malaga, by contrast, are rooted to the bottom of the table with just three points, and are one of only three teams across Europe’s major leagues yet to record a victory this season, alongside Borussia Mönchengladbach and Le Havre. For the Andalusians, this trip to Vitoria represents a return to the stadium where they were relegated to Primera RFEF in 2023, a venue that holds painful memories.

Match Information 📋

Match: Deportivo Alaves vs Malaga CF
Competition: Spain: LaLiga – Round 10
Date: Friday, 23 October 2026
Kick-off: 20:00 BST (21:00 CEST)
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Our Prediction: Alaves 1-0 Malaga

Head-to-Head Record 📋

The historical record is remarkably balanced across 24 meetings, with Malaga holding a narrow advantage of 11 wins to Alaves’ ten. At Mendizorrotza, however, Alaves have the edge: seven wins from 12 home encounters, with Malaga claiming four. The most recent meeting, a 2023 Segunda Division clash, ended in a 2-1 Alaves victory. In LaLiga specifically, the sides have met 16 times, with Alaves winning eight, drawing three, and losing five.

Alaves Form 🔵

Last 5: L-L-D-L-D

Alaves’ season has been a tale of two campaigns. The Babazorros opened with four victories and a draw from their first five matches, but have since taken just one point from a possible fifteen. The 2-5 home defeat to Real Sociedad before the international break was a particular low, exposing defensive frailties that had been masked during their early-season surge. Lucas Boye has been the standout performer with five goals, while Mariano Diaz has contributed three goals and four assists despite playing only 46% of available minutes. Captain Antonio Sivera has called for calm, insisting the team’s underlying performances remain positive.

Team News: Quique Sanchez Flores is without Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez, both long-term absentees. Angel Perez returns from suspension and is expected to slot in on the right wing. The coach is considering recalling Mariano to partner Boye in attack, while Denis Suarez could start in midfield.

Malaga Form ⚪

Last 5: L-D-L-L-L

Malaga’s return to LaLiga has been a sobering experience. The Anchovies have scored just six goals in nine matches, the joint-lowest in the division, and have conceded 18, the worst defensive record. Their away form is particularly dire: one point from a possible nine on the road, with just one goal scored. The 2-5 home defeat to Real Sociedad was their fourth loss of the campaign and left them four points adrift of safety. Adrian Nino has been the primary threat with three goals, while Carlos Dotor has chipped in with two.

Team News: Juanfran Funes has been dealt a significant blow with Joaquin Munoz ruled out after medical tests confirmed a soleus muscle injury. Juan Cruz remains a doubt after a recurrence of a hamstring problem. Julen Lobete, Diego Murillo, and Aaron Ochoa are all long-term absentees.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Alaves Predicted Lineup (5-3-2)

Sivera; Koski, Jonny, Tenaglia, Angel Perez, Rebbach; Blanco, Alena, Ibanez; Boye, Mariano

Flores is expected to retain the back five that has been his preferred system, with Mariano partnering Boye in attack after his impressive goal contributions.

Malaga Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)

Herrero; Rafita, Calero, Recio, Aznou; Larrubia, Dotor, Lorenzo, Pablo Martinez; Nino, Chupe

Funes is expected to persist with the 4-4-2 that has served him, with Nino and Chupe leading the line.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical data reveals a gulf in attacking quality. Alaves average 1.44 goals per match with an xG of 1.44, while Malaga average just 0.67 goals with an xG of 1.23. The Andalusians are creating chances at a reasonable rate but converting them at a woeful one. Alaves’ defensive record of 1.11 goals conceded per match is also significantly better than Malaga’s 2.0.

The key battle will be Alaves’ attacking transitions against Malaga’s fragile backline. The visitors have conceded in every away match this season, and their 4-4-2 has been repeatedly exposed by quick combinations. Both Teams to Score carries just a 56% probability, reflecting Malaga’s attacking impotence. The most likely scoreline according to statistical models is 1-1 (13.43%), followed by 1-0 (9.99%).

Betting Analysis 💰

Alaves are clear favourites at 1.62, with Malaga at 5.50 and the draw at 3.80. The market reflects the gulf in form and home advantage. Under 2.5 goals is the standout angle: Malaga have scored just once on the road all season, and Alaves’ matches have been low-scoring during their slump. Alaves to win to nil offers value given Malaga’s away scoring record.

Final Prediction 🏁

Alaves 1-0 Malaga

This is a fixture where home advantage and superior individual quality should prove decisive, even amid Alaves’ own difficult run. The Babazorros have been poor for five matches, but they possess a genuine goalscorer in Boye and a supportive crowd at Mendizorrotza. Malaga, by contrast, are winless, bottom of the table, and shorn of their most creative wide player in Munoz.

The Andalusians will not go quietly. The memory of their relegation at this stadium in 2023 could fuel a defiant performance, and Nino’s movement offers a counter-attacking threat. But the gulf in quality and confidence, combined with Malaga’s abysmal away record, should prove decisive.

Prediction: Alaves 1-0 Malaga. Boye opens the scoring before half-time, and Alaves’ defence holds firm to claim a vital three points that halts their slide and deepens Malaga’s relegation fears.