Estrela vs Benfica Prediction, November 8, 2026: Can the Slumping Hosts Finally End a 44-Game Hoodoo? 🏆

Estrela vs Benfica Prediction: Match Preview

Estrela da Amadora welcome Benfica to the Estádio José Gomes on Sunday evening for the closing fixture of Liga Portugal’s eleventh round, and the hosts do so in the midst of an alarming slump. The Tricolours sit 12th with 10 points from eight matches, having lost four consecutive league games—against Académico de Viseu, Arouca, Casa Pia, and Moreirense—and they have not won in the Primeira Liga since September. Benfica, by contrast, arrive in Amadora on a seven-match winning run across all competitions, having thrashed Lech Poznan 3-1 in the Europa League on Thursday to move top of the league-phase table. The historical record offers the visitors absolute comfort: Estrela have never beaten Benfica in nine competitive meetings, losing all nine, including a 7-0 humiliation in the Taça de Portugal two years ago.

Match Information 📋

Match: CF Estrela da Amadora vs SL Benfica
Competition: Portugal: Liga Portugal – Round 11
Date: Sunday, 8 November 2026
Kick-off: 20:30 CET (19:30 GMT)
Venue: Estádio José Gomes, Amadora
Our Prediction: Estrela 0-3 Benfica

Head-to-Head Record 📋

Benfica’s dominance in this fixture is absolute. Across 44 competitive meetings, the Eagles have won 36, drawn six, and lost just two. The recent record is even more emphatic: Benfica have won all nine meetings since Estrela’s promotion in 2023, including a 1-0 victory at the Estádio José Gomes in August 2025 and a 4-0 triumph at the Estádio da Luz in January 2026. Estrela have not scored against Benfica in their last two encounters, and their only victories in this fixture date back to the 1990s.

Estrela Form 🔵

Last 5: L-L-L-L-W

Estrela’s season has unravelled after a promising start that included draws against Sporting and Braga. The 2-1 defeat at Moreirense was their fourth consecutive league loss, though Lovro Zvonarek’s second-half goal ended a three-match scoring drought. Ianis Stoica remains the club’s leading scorer with four goals, but the Romanian has not found the net since September and his drought coincides with Estrela’s slump. The defensive record of 15 goals conceded in eight matches is a concern, and Estrela have conceded in each of their last 12 matches.

Team News: Eddy Doué and Beni Souza are both unavailable for internal reasons, with coach Pepa confirming their absences in his pre-match press conference. Robinho and Jeremy Arevalo remain sidelined through injury.

Benfica Form ⚪

Last 5: W-W-W-W-W

Benfica’s momentum is undeniable. The 3-1 victory over Lech Poznan was their seventh consecutive win, with Rafa Silva, Gianluca Prestianni, and Georgiy Sudakov all finding the net. Vangelis Pavlidis leads the Primeira Liga scoring charts with 10 goals in 10 appearances, though he was an unused substitute in midweek and is expected to return to the starting XI. Benfica have scored 20 goals across their last seven matches, finding the net at least four times on three occasions during that run.

Team News: Clément Lenglet returns to the squad after missing the Lech Poznan fixture with a physical issue, with Marco Silva confirming the French defender “will be in the squad”. Leandro Barreiro remains injured and is not expected to feature in the coming weeks.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Estrela Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Linck; Scholze, Luan Patrick, Lekovic, Davin; Jansson, Serra; Marcus, Zvonarek, Stoica; Antonetti

Pepa is expected to retain the XI that lost to Moreirense, with Stoica leading the line despite his scoring drought and Zvonarek providing the creative spark.

Benfica Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Soares; Bah, Araújo, Circati, Dahl; Aursnes, Palhinha; Lukebakio, Prestianni, Schjelderup; Pavlidis

Silva is expected to restore Pavlidis to the starting XI after his midweek rest, with Prestianni and Schjelderup providing the wide threat.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical picture reveals the scale of Estrela’s task. Benfica average 3.14 goals per match across their recent form, while Estrela average 1.71. The Eagles’ xG figures are among the highest in the division, and their defensive record of just eight goals conceded in the league is the joint-best. Both Teams to Score carries a 50% probability according to APWin, though Estrela’s recent scoring struggles against Benfica make that figure questionable.

The key battle will be Estrela’s fragile defence against Benfica’s attacking rotations. The hosts have conceded in 12 consecutive matches, and Benfica’s 20 goals in seven games reflect a side that punishes defensive lapses ruthlessly. Estrela will defend deep, but the gulf in class is vast.

Betting Analysis 💰

Benfica are overwhelming favourites at 1.20, with Estrela at 15.00 and the draw at 7.50. Under 3.5 goals is the standout angle: Estrela’s last five matches have all produced fewer than 3.5 goals, and Benfica’s last three league games have followed the same pattern. Benfica to win to nil offers the safest value given Estrela’s attacking impotence against the Eagles.

Final Prediction 🏁

Estrela 0-3 Benfica

This is a fixture where the gulf in form, quality, and historical precedent aligns decisively in Benfica’s favour. The Eagles have won all nine meetings between the clubs, are on a seven-match winning run, and possess the division’s most potent attack in Pavlidis and Prestianni. Estrela, by contrast, are winless in five league matches, have conceded in 12 consecutive games, and are without two key players due to internal issues.

Estrela will not go quietly. The Estádio José Gomes crowd will demand a response, and the memory of their early-season draws against Sporting and Braga proves they can compete with the big guns on their day. But the gulf in class, combined with Benfica’s need to keep pace with the league leaders before the international break, should prove decisive.

Prediction: Estrela 0-3 Benfica. Pavlidis opens the scoring for the visitors inside the first half-hour, Prestianni doubles the lead after the break, and Sudakov seals the points as Benfica extend their perfect record against Estrela and maintain their pursuit of the title.