Slovenia vs North Macedonia Prediction: Can Oblak’s Men Finally Secure a First Win? 🏆

Slovenia vs North Macedonia Prediction: Match Preview

Slovenia welcome North Macedonia to the Stožice Stadium on Tuesday night knowing that victory would represent a significant step towards Nations League B survival, while defeat would leave Boštjan Cesar’s side facing a nervy conclusion to the campaign. The hosts opened their Group B1 account with a goalless draw against Scotland, a result built on Jan Oblak’s brilliance between the posts rather than any attacking fluency. North Macedonia, by contrast, arrive in Ljubljana bruised and battered after a chastening 3-0 home defeat to Switzerland, a result that extended their winless run to eight matches and left them rooted to the bottom of the group.

Match Information 📋

Match: Slovenia vs North Macedonia
Competition: UEFA Nations League B1
Date: Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Kick-off: 19:45 BST
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana
Our Prediction: Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia

Our Prediction 🎯

Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia

Main Betting Angle: Slovenia to win & under 2.5 goals

Key Reasoning: North Macedonia’s alarming goal drought and Slovenia’s defensive solidity should yield a comfortable home victory.

Head-to-Head Record 📋

The historical record between these two nations offers genuine encouragement for the visitors, despite their current predicament. Across seven recorded meetings, North Macedonia have won four, Slovenia have won one, and two have ended in draws.

Most significantly, North Macedonia are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Slovenia, a run that includes a 1-1 draw in the EURO 2020 qualifiers and a 2-1 victory in the same campaign. Slovenia’s only victory over their neighbours came in a 1994 friendly, a 2-0 win in Skopje.

Slovenia Form 🔵

Last 5 matches: D-L-D-L-W

Slovenia’s goalless draw with Scotland was a tale of two contrasting performances. Defensively, Cesar’s side were resolute, limiting Scotland to just one shot on target and recording their first clean sheet since October 2025. However, going forward they offered almost nothing, managing just one attempt on goal themselves.

The hosts’ attacking struggles are well documented. Slovenia have now failed to score in three of their last five matches and have scored more than one goal in a game just twice in their last eleven outings. The absence of Benjamin Šeško through a persistent shin injury has left a gaping hole in the attack, with Andraž Šporar and Žan Vipotnik struggling to fill the void.

Cesar also faces a defensive reshuffle. Vanja Drkušić was forced off against Scotland with an injury and has been ruled out, with David Zec expected to deputise alongside Jaka Bijol. Jan Oblak, who made a string of crucial saves in the Scotland stalemate, will earn his 86th cap.

North Macedonia Form ⚪

Last 5 matches: L-L-D-L-W

North Macedonia’s 3-0 defeat to Switzerland was as comprehensive as the scoreline suggests. Goce Sedloski’s side were overwhelmed in Skopje, conceding twice inside the opening hour before Switzerland added a third to compound their misery. The result extended their winless run to eight matches, with their last victory coming in June 2025.

The most alarming statistic concerns their attacking output. North Macedonia have failed to score in each of their last five matches, a drought that stretches back over 450 minutes of football. Their last goal came in a 7-1 thrashing by Wales, and they have managed just one shot on target across their last three fixtures.

Sedloski has opted for a squad of 28 players for the four matches in this international window, including four debutants: Anes Meliqi, Gjorgje Dzekov, Matej Gashtarov, and Hristijan Maleski. Captain Enis Bardhi remains the creative fulcrum, while Elif Elmas has been praised by Sedloski for finding regular playing time at Atalanta.

Team News & Expected Lineups 📰

Slovenia Predicted Lineup (4-4-1-1)

Oblak; Karničnik, Zec, Bijol, Janža; Sturm, Cerin, Elsnik, Matko; Lovrić; Šporar

Cesar is expected to retain the back four that performed so well against Scotland, with David Zec replacing the injured Vanja Drkušić. Adam Gnezda Čerin and Timi Max Elšnik will anchor the midfield, while Andraž Šporar leads the line despite his struggles in front of goal. Žan Vipotnik remains an option from the bench.

North Macedonia Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Dimitrievski; Ilievski, Zajkov, Musliu, Herrera; Kostadinov, Gashtarov; Elmas, Bardhi, Alioski; Miovski

Sedloski is expected to make changes after the Switzerland humiliation. Matej Gashtarov, the 19-year-old Red Star midfielder, could be handed his debut in central midfield. Elif Elmas and Enis Bardhi provide the creative spark, while Bojan Miovski leads the attack despite his recent struggles in front of goal.

Key Stats 📊

• North Macedonia goal drought: 0 goals in last 5 matches

• North Macedonia winless run: 8 matches without a victory

• Slovenia clean sheets: 1 in last 5 matches

• Under 2.5 goals: 7 of Slovenia’s last 9 matches

• H2H recent: North Macedonia unbeaten in last 3 meetings

Tactical Analysis 📈

The match will be defined by Slovenia’s need to break down a North Macedonian side devoid of confidence against a defence that has conceded heavily.

Cesar’s system relies on Oblak’s distribution and the defensive solidity of Bijol and Zec. The hosts will look to control possession and create chances through Elšnik’s creativity and Sturm’s pace on the wing. However, the absence of Šeško means Slovenia lack a focal point in attack, and Šporar’s struggles in front of goal are a genuine concern.

North Macedonia will look to frustrate the hosts and strike on the counter, but their attacking output has been abysmal. Bardhi and Elmas possess the quality to unlock defences, but they have been starved of service in recent matches. Miovski’s movement is a threat, but the Rangers striker has scored just once in his last ten international appearances.

The key battle will be Slovenia’s midfield against Bardhi and Elmas. If Cesar’s side can dominate possession and create chances, North Macedonia’s fragile confidence should crumble.

Betting Analysis 💰

Result: Slovenia Win

Goals: Under 2.5

Both Teams to Score: No

Slovenia are priced at 1.59 for the victory, with North Macedonia at 5.83 and the draw at 3.75. The Under 2.5 goals market is heavily favoured given both sides’ attacking struggles. Both Teams to Score: No is also a strong selection, with North Macedonia having failed to score in five consecutive matches.

Final Prediction 🏁

Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia

Slovenia’s defensive solidity, home advantage, and North Macedonia’s alarming goal drought make the hosts clear favourites in Ljubljana. Cesar’s side were far from convincing against Scotland, but they face a North Macedonian team in crisis, winless in eight matches and without a goal in five.

The visitors’ historical record against Slovenia offers a glimmer of hope, but that counts for little given their current predicament. Sedloski’s side have conceded 16 goals in their last four defeats and appear incapable of scoring, let alone winning.

Expect Slovenia to dominate possession and create chances, with their defensive organisation proving sufficient to secure a comfortable victory.

Prediction: Slovenia 2-0 North Macedonia. Goals from Andraž Šporar and Timi Max Elšnik should secure a much-needed victory for the hosts, leaving North Macedonia still searching for their first point and first goal of the campaign.