Fiorentina vs Benevento Prediction: Viola to Start with a Win, Odds 1.28

Fiorentina vs Benevento Prediction

Match Overview

Fiorentina begin their Coppa Italia campaign against newly promoted Serie B side Benevento at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence on August 14, 2026.

The Viola enter their first competitive fixture under Fabio Grosso, while Benevento already have one cup victory under their belt after an extraordinary 5-3 win over Ravenna.

The difference in squad quality and home advantage makes Fiorentina clear favourites, although Benevento’s attacking confidence means the visitors should not be underestimated.

The match also opens Fiorentina’s centenary season, adding another emotional dimension to the occasion.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical meetings have generally favoured Fiorentina.

Recent competitive record: Fiorentina 4 wins, Benevento 1 win, with no draw in the latest five meetings.

The most recent competitive encounter came in December 2021, when Fiorentina defeated Benevento 2-1 in the Coppa Italia.

The historical advantage is therefore firmly with the Viola, although the long gap between competitive meetings means previous results have limited predictive value.

Team Form and Latest News

Fiorentina’s preparations have been encouraging but not flawless.

Their latest preseason fixture ended in a 1-1 draw with Deportivo La Coruña, while the Viola also produced an impressive 2-2 draw against Real Madrid earlier in August.

Grosso is attempting to establish a more aggressive and vertical identity after Fiorentina endured a disappointing previous campaign.

The biggest selection question surrounds Franco Mastantuono. The highly-rated new signing has only recently returned to full training and is more likely to make his competitive debut from the bench.

Christ Inao Oulaï has also been recovering from illness, while Fiorentina are reportedly without Fabiano Parisi and several other players carrying fitness concerns.

Benevento arrive with considerably more competitive sharpness.

Antonio Floro Flores’ side defeated Ravenna 5-3 in the previous Coppa Italia round after recovering from a two-goal deficit. The result highlighted their attacking potential but also exposed considerable defensive weaknesses.

Benevento finished last season by winning promotion back to Serie B and also lifted the Serie C Super Cup, so confidence inside the squad is high.

However, a long injury list leaves the visitors short of options for one of their toughest fixtures of the summer.

Predicted Lineups

Fiorentina — 4-3-2-1:
De Gea; João Mário, Drăgușin, Ranieri, Valdepeñas; Oulaï, Brescianini, Ndour; Atta, Guðmundsson; Kean.

Benevento — 4-2-3-1:
Vannucchi; Pierozzi, Scognamillo, Caldirola, Beruatto; Maita, Prisco; Lamesta, Talia, Guigliano; Salvemini.

Mastantuono could be introduced during the second half if Grosso decides not to risk the youngster from the start.

Benevento are expected to retain the structure that produced their five-goal performance against Ravenna, with Francesco Salvemini leading the attack.

Injuries and Squad News

Fiorentina have no major fresh injury crisis, but Parisi remains unavailable and Oulaï’s fitness has required monitoring.

Mastantuono is expected to be handled carefully after completing his first full training sessions only recently.

Benevento have greater availability concerns. Romano, Schimmenti, Simonetti, Ricci, Donatiello and Del Gaudio are sidelined, while Marco Tumminello is suspended.

The absence of Tumminello removes another attacking option and could become significant against a Fiorentina defence expected to dominate possession.

xG and Tactical Outlook

My projected xG is Fiorentina 2.15 – 0.75 Benevento.

Fiorentina should control possession and spend long periods around the Benevento penalty area.

Grosso’s preferred structure should create overloads between the lines, with Atta and Guðmundsson moving inside and allowing the full-backs to provide width.

Moise Kean is the key attacking reference. His movement should test Benevento’s central defenders, particularly when Fiorentina accelerate through midfield.

Benevento’s best weapon is likely to be the counterattack.

Their 5-3 victory over Ravenna demonstrated their ability to create chances quickly, but conceding three goals also showed why a more conservative approach will probably be necessary in Florence.

The visitors may attempt to remain compact before exploiting spaces behind Fiorentina’s advancing full-backs.

Prediction and Betting Pick

Fiorentina are strong favourites, with the market placing the home victory at approximately 1.28.

The main danger for the Viola is their lack of competitive rhythm and the fact that Grosso is still assembling a new-look side.

Benevento, meanwhile, have already experienced the intensity of a competitive cup match and have scored five goals in their previous outing.

Nevertheless, Fiorentina possess significantly greater individual quality and should have enough control to progress without needing extra time.

Main Prediction: Fiorentina to Win — approximate odds 1.28.

Value Prediction: Fiorentina -1.5 Handicap — approximate odds 1.70.

Secondary Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals — approximate odds 1.70.

Both Teams to Score: No — approximate odds 1.61.

Correct Score: Fiorentina 2-0 Benevento.

The most attractive approach is backing Fiorentina to win while expecting the visitors to struggle to reproduce their extraordinary attacking performance from the previous round.

⚽ Final Verdict: Fiorentina 2-0 Benevento.